In 2024, electricity prices in the Baltic region fluctuate depending on market factors, including supply, demand, geopolitics and generation conditions. For example, at the beginning of November 2024, the Latvian wholesale electricity price on the Nord Pool exchange reached 118.34 EUR/MWh. By comparison, the price in Estonia was lower at €96.97/MWh, while in Lithuania it was similar to Latvia.
In addition to the above, it is important to note that electricity prices are closely linked to overall global energy market trends and climatic conditions. In early 2024, forecast electricity prices are volatile on average in the Baltics due to the increase in demand during the winter season and generation capacity constraints.
Price changes in 2024:
At the beginning of 2024, electricity prices in the Baltic region were characterised by volatility. This was largely due to the limited energy production during the winter period as well as global energy supply factors. Latvia and the Baltic region as a whole have a strong dependence on imported electricity, which means that prices are sensitive to changes in supply in neighbouring countries. In January and February, prices were higher, averaging around EUR 130-150/MWh, mainly due to an increase in demand and a decrease in wind generation. Electricity prices declined moderately during the year as renewable generation capacity increased in the spring and summer, in particular solar. This stabilised and lowered prices, bringing them down to around 90-110 €/MWh in some months. Electricity prices during this period were thus relatively lower than at the beginning of the year
However, the increase in demand in autumn, which is traditionally characteristic of the colder months, and the fall in production again had an upward effect on prices. In November, the Latvian wholesale electricity price again reached EUR 118.34/MWh, higher than in the summer months but down compared to the start of the year. The increase was also largely due to reduced renewable generation and higher consumption.
Electricity market forecasts 2025
Electricity prices in 2025 may be affected by security of energy supply and the EU’s objectives of increasing energy independence and reducing carbon emissions. The share of sustainable and renewable energy sources is expected to increase, which could stabilise or reduce prices in the long term. However, risks are associated with possible constraints on electricity generation and transmission capacity, in particular if planned investment targets are not met.
Source: Mājai-Enefit Latvija, Latvenergo